The ex-president takes the lead among potential Iowa caucusgoers, scoring an impressive 51% compared to Ron DeSantis at 19%, while Nikki Haley holds strong at 16%
In a significant surge, Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over GOP contenders with just five weeks until the inaugural Republican presidential nominating contest. The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll reveals Trump securing an impressive 51% first-choice support among likely Iowa caucusgoers, marking the largest lead recorded in the poll’s history so close to a competitive Republican caucus.
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— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 25, 2023
Trump’s commanding lead is driven by strong backing from evangelical and first-time likely caucusgoers, as well as nearly three-quarters of Republicans who believe in his ability to defeat President Joe Biden next year, despite legal challenges. The poll also highlights Trump’s unparalleled enthusiasm and commitment from supporters, outshining rivals as the Jan. 15 contest in Iowa approaches.
One respondent, Timothy Blackerby of Missouri Valley, Iowa, emphasized unwavering support, stating, ‘It doesn’t matter what they say or do. My vote is going to Trump no matter what, even if they promise me a million dollars.’
Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, with three decades of survey experience, notes that the field may have narrowed, but Trump’s strength has only intensified, describing his lead as ‘commanding.’ However, the poll reveals openness among caucusgoers to consider contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
While Trump dominates with 51% support, DeSantis follows at 19%, and Haley at 16%. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Notably, Trump’s 32-point lead over rivals is an increase from October’s poll, indicating a growing advantage.
Trump’s support spans various demographics, with strong backing from evangelical Christians, self-identified Republicans, first-time caucusgoers, and white men without college degrees. Despite leading among groups with college degrees, independents, and suburban residents, Trump faces comparatively narrower margins.
The Iowa caucuses, known for their unpredictability, have seen unexpected outcomes, as illustrated by Rick Santorum’s surprise win in 2012. As the first state to vote, Iowa holds increased significance this year, serving as a crucial battleground for Trump’s rivals aiming to curb his momentum in the 2024 primary.
Many folks heading to the caucuses are still giving serious thought to DeSantis and Haley.
Even with Trump holding a substantial 30-point-plus lead over his competition, a significant number of potential caucusgoers are still keeping DeSantis and Haley in the running as the Iowa caucuses approach.
A notable 30% are leaning towards DeSantis as their second choice, and an additional 18% are actively considering the Florida governor. Chris Myszewski, 53, from Waukee, Iowa, shared, ‘I like the fact that he is a governor. … I do like the fact that he was in the military. … I like the fact that he is decisive with decision-making,’ explaining his support for DeSantis.
Similarly, 17% favor Haley as their second choice, while another 19% are actively contemplating her candidacy. Michael Wright, 50, from Grimes, Iowa, praised Haley, stating, ‘I just like her mix of experience. She has the executive experience from being the governor of South Carolina and she has foreign policy experience at the U.N.’
Even with Trump holding a substantial 30-point-plus lead over his competition, a significant number of potential caucusgoers are still keeping DeSantis and Haley in the running as the Iowa caucuses approach.
A notable 30% are leaning towards DeSantis as their second choice, and an additional 18% are actively considering the Florida governor. Chris Myszewski, 53, from Waukee, Iowa, shared, ‘I like the fact that he is a governor. … I do like the fact that he was in the military. … I like the fact that he is decisive with decision-making,’ explaining his support for DeSantis.
Similarly, 17% favor Haley as their second choice, while another 19% are actively contemplating her candidacy. Michael Wright, 50, from Grimes, Iowa, praised Haley, stating, ‘I just like her mix of experience. She has the executive experience from being the governor of South Carolina and she has foreign policy experience at the U.N.’
Looks like a solid 50% of caucusgoers have their decisions locked in already!
Almost half of potential Republican caucusgoers, a solid 49%, have already settled on their choices—a notable increase from the 41% recorded in October. Interestingly, 46% remain open to persuasion, showing a willingness to consider other options.
Comparing to the state of affairs in December 2015, at a similar juncture before the previous closely contested Iowa GOP caucuses, only 33% of likely caucusgoers had their minds made up, while a significant 66% were open to persuasion.
The key factor influencing this shift is the unwavering loyalty among Trump supporters. A substantial 70% of Trump’s backers have already made their decisions, setting them apart. In contrast, a smaller proportion of DeSantis’ supporters (30%) and Haley’s backers (34%) have firmly decided on their choices.
Almost 75% of Republicans are confident that Trump can beat Biden, even with the legal hurdles in the mix
Here’s the kicker: a whopping 73% of folks gearing up for the caucuses truly believe Trump can clinch a general election victory over President Joe Biden, even with those legal challenges he’s dealing with. That’s a notable jump from the 65% who were on board with this in October.
On the flip side, only 24% reckon that Trump’s legal hurdles make it nearly impossible for him to triumph over Biden, a drop from 32% who thought so just two months back.
